But we did our research… so how did it go wrong?

Too often I hear of failed product launches that were supposedly built on solid forecasts of customer demand.  When I dig a bit deeper, this usually is built on some very informal ‘research’ and rather ambitious extrapolations into a business case.  It got me thinking…

Whenever I’ve reviewed failed product/service launches, invariably one or more of these factors feature in the supposed ‘research’ that was done:

Don’t just ask your mum

Let’s be honest, mum is always going to love your work.  So are your close friends.  And probably your immediate suppliers too.  People like you are likely to share similar views as you, so you won’t learn much more than asking yourself, and people with a vested interest aren’t going to give you a genuine appraisal so don’t bother asking them. 

Try to identify your likely target market

Instead, try to find people who your product or service is actually designed for – they are the ones who will ultimately buy it.  This means you might have to get out to where they live, work, or play – make the effort, nothing beats observing them in their ‘natural environment’ to generate some deep insight.  Equally, asking the ‘wrong’ people could scupper a great idea unnecessarily. 

Make sure you present an honest overview of your proposition

Everyone wants to hear they’ve got a great idea, so it is natural to try to ‘sell’ your product or service…  nothing wrong with that as it is what you’ll need to do once in market, but at this stage only showing your ‘good side’ or leaving out pertinent information is only undermining this golden opportunity you’ve got to enhance your proposition before it launches.

Seek to calibrate

People don’t (usually) try to deliberately deceive you.  If they say they’ll buy your product/service they’ve probably got a genuine intention to do so…  however, if they don’t have ‘form’ you need to take that into account.   For example, if they have never purchased a similar or related product the probability of buying yours is much lower.  Did you offer them your proposition in comparison to competitors?  What might happen if a competitor changes their offer?  If they don’t have easy access to your product, are they really going to go out of their way to find it?  If they don’t have certain pre-requisites (e.g appropriate income levels etc), again, the likelihood of following through on their intention is limited.  These sorts of variables need to be factored into any demand forecasts – they will provide a much more realistic view of how well your product/service might sell.

Does your launch resemble the original idea?

If what you launch doesn’t look much like what you tested with the target market, then you can’t really rely on their original feedback to sustain your revenue projections!  Changes to proposition designs are common.  They often happen when budgets get trimmed, or product supplies can’t quite deliver as originally intended, or as new people enter the business or project team with different thoughts… when this occurs it’s important to re-check with the target market whether these various compromises have dampened their enthusiasm for the proposition or not…  to assume their original feedback still holds true carries a lot of risk.

So, when people curse ‘dodgy’ research for a failed launch they’re usually right! Not all feedback is reliable, and some can be quite misleading, especially if you focus on listening to what you want to hear. Avoiding the pitfalls described above by staying objective and seeking the right feedback from the right people is how you’ll really know if you’re onto a winner.